Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.049062 0.055702 0.063116 0.072048 0.082565 0.094616 0.109559
2026-01-04 0.041090 0.049848 0.060461 0.074411 0.092481 0.115391 0.147120
2026-01-11 0.034597 0.044410 0.057172 0.075304 0.100937 0.136713 0.191977
2026-01-18 0.029437 0.039741 0.054025 0.075841 0.109369 0.160819 0.249710
2026-01-25 0.024760 0.034928 0.049841 0.074154 0.114534 0.182384 0.313426
2026-02-01 0.020679 0.030301 0.045127 0.070748 0.116432 0.200048 0.380151
2026-02-08 0.018192 0.027685 0.043055 0.071257 0.125447 0.234259 0.499299
2026-02-15 0.016144 0.025439 0.041200 0.071810 0.135059 0.274421 0.660463
2026-02-22 0.014582 0.023754 0.040015 0.073410 0.147648 0.327779 0.901563
2026-03-01 0.013208 0.022183 0.038761 0.074648 0.160260 0.388917 1.231708
2026-03-08 0.011764 0.020268 0.036532 0.073369 0.166858 0.439178 1.591793
2026-03-15 0.010184 0.017881 0.032988 0.068398 0.162658 0.456718 1.851751
2026-03-22 0.009307 0.016749 0.031863 0.068940 0.174234 0.535614 2.560200
2026-03-29 0.008658 0.015978 0.031371 0.070968 0.191433 0.650624 3.774019
2026-04-05 0.007986 0.015065 0.030420 0.071635 0.205187 0.767460 5.419834
2026-04-12 0.007375 0.014199 0.029431 0.071994 0.218555 0.899725 7.840086
2026-04-19 0.006719 0.013150 0.027846 0.070293 0.224106 1.002769 10.615630
2026-04-26 0.006059 0.012015 0.025880 0.067010 0.222400 1.067525 13.442293
2026-05-03 0.005662 0.011422 0.025165 0.067412 0.236305 1.251409 20.419431
2026-05-10 0.005309 0.010886 0.024511 0.067866 0.251146 1.470926 32.009051
2026-05-17 0.005032 0.010494 0.024171 0.069306 0.271909 1.782169 55.185215
2026-05-24 0.004767 0.010099 0.023760 0.070416 0.292279 2.143896 98.239842
2026-05-31 0.004444 0.009525 0.022767 0.069189 0.299958 2.406968 155.934377